Kakula Copper Mine Dewatering Progressed Step by Step, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower on Friday [SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes]

Monday, September 22, 2025
Futures: On Friday night, LME copper opened at $9,979.5/mt, fluctuated downward after opening and touched a low of $9,962/mt, then fluctuated upward, approaching the tail and touching a high of $9,999.5/mt, finally closed at $9,996.5/mt, up 0.51%, with trading volume at 12,000 lots and open interest at 290,000 lots. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2511 contract opened at 79,950 yuan/mt, rose to a high after opening and then pulled back, touched a low of 79,910 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of 80,190 yuan/mt, maintained rangebound fluctuations toward the tail and finally closed at 80,080 yuan/mt, up 0.33%, with trading volume at 20,000 lots and open interest at 176,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On September 18, Ivanhoe Mines announced that the second phase of the dewatering plan for the Kakula copper mine in the DRC had commenced. Currently, three of the four high-capacity submersible pumps have been installed and put into operation as planned, and the groundwater level has dropped by about 10 meters from the originally estimated 80 meters. The remaining pump is expected to be put into use within a few days, at which time the total pumping capacity will reach 2,600 liters per second. The company plans to adjust the location of temporary pumping facilities based on changes in water levels. In addition, the copper production guidance for 2026-2027, originally scheduled for release in mid-September, has been postponed and will be announced separately after on-site inspection of the dewatered area.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 19, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2510 contract were reported at parity to a premium of 140 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 79,860 to 80,120 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2510 contract continued to rise from 79,700 yuan/mt to 79,980 yuan/mt and was touched multiple times; the inter-month price spread ranged between a backwardation of 10-30 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to this week, copper prices returning to near 80,000 yuan/mt again weakened market procurement sentiment, but with the National Day holiday approaching, stockpiling activities downstream will keep premiums firm, and transactions are expected to continue stabilizing above parity.
(2) Guangdong: On September 19, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract ranged from a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 75 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 40-20 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 30 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 79,965 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 79,860 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Overall, improved consumption led to a decline in inventory, spot premiums rose, and overall trading was moderate.
(3) Imported copper: On September 19, warrant prices ranged from $50 to $64/mt, QP October, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices ranged from $53 to $65/mt, QP October, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) ranged from $28 to $36/mt, QP October, with the average price up $4/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late September and early October.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 19, the futures closing price was 79,980 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 70 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials remained flat MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 73,500-73,700 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,752 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 890 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, trading in the recycled copper raw materials market was mediocre, with suppliers generally waiting for copper prices to stabilize. Purchases by secondary copper rod enterprises fell short again.
(5) Inventory: On September 18, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 1,225 mt to 147,650 mt. On September 19, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 631 mt to 31,838 mt.
Price: On the macro front, US Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rate cuts will continue in the coming months and stated efforts to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster. Market expectations for further accommodative monetary policy from the US Fed heated up. Additionally, Trump is scheduled to meet with Arab leaders this week to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza, reducing the risk of escalating geopolitical conflicts, which is expected to support copper prices. Fundamentally, supply side, imported supply remained stable last week, while domestic supply narrowed. Demand side, approaching the holiday, downstream stockpiling actions supported consumption, but with copper prices fluctuating near 80,000 yuan/mt again, consumption boost was limited. Overall, with macro support and a fundamental pattern of narrowing supply and rebounding demand, copper prices are expected to find support today.

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